Calibration of Government Parameters

Government Transfers as a Share of GDP

We have calibrated Philippine government spending on transfer programs as a percent of GDP as \(\alpha_T=[0.0971]\). [TODO: Include citation.]

Government Spending as a Share of GDP

The 2025 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing Table A2 https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/2025/budget-of-expenditures-and-sources-of-financing-fy-2025 forecasts total federal spending as a percent of GDP in 2025, 2026, and 2027 as 21.5%, 20.9%, and 20.7%, respectively. To get the portion that is net of transfers, we subtract off the calibrated percentage of spending on transfers as a percent of GDP \(\alpha_T=[0.0971]\). This gives our calibration for government spending net of transfers as a percent of GDP for 2025, 2026, and 2027 as \(\alpha_G=[0.1179, 0.1119, 0.1099]\).

Government spending on infrastructure as a share of GDP

We’ve calibrated the vector \(\alpha_I=[0.054, 0.054, 0.056]\). These values are forecasts for 2025, 2026 and 2027. This came from the 2025 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing Table A2 https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/2025/budget-of-expenditures-and-sources-of-financing-fy-2025